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Dodgers Dugout: Here’s why the Dodgers will beat the Padres

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. This is the moment we’ve all been waiting for.
The Dodgers are playing the San Diego Padres in the best-of-five National League Division Series, which begins Saturday at Dodger Stadium. It was the least-hoped-for matchup in a survey of newsletter readers, but here it is anyway.
Before we look at the teams, let me get on my soapbox for a moment. I’ve received a lot of emails from nervous Dodger fans, and from pessimistic Dodger fans, who say the Dodgers can’t possibly win. That the Padres are the hot team and the Dodgers are doomed to another NLDS exit because of that and their shaky starting pitching. And you know what, they may be right. I don’t know who’s going to win. Neither do you. That’s why they play the games. The Dodgers are favored to win the World Series, and simulation sites now give them an 18% chance to win it all, which is another way of saying they have an 82% chance of not winning it all.
The odds are stacked against any team to win the World Series. With 12 teams in the postseason, anything can happen, as we saw in the AL wild-card round, when Detroit and Kansas City defeated the favored Houston (no relation) and Baltimore. (And wasn’t it nice to see the Houston Asterisks get swept?)
Here’s what you have to keep in mind. Anything can happen. The Dodgers can beat the Padres, in fact they just beat them twice in three games in the last week of the season. Yes, the Padres won the season series, but the Mets beat the Dodgers 10 of 11 times in 1988, and look what happened in that NLCS.
So, try to relax and enjoy the games. It’s not worth an ulcer. Be disappointed if they lose, but if you are angry, then it’s time to find a new hobby. There are people on the East Coast literally digging their belongings out from mud and water who wish they could get mad over a baseball game. Keep it in perspective.
Now, before I get angry emails, let me say I’m not telling you how to be a fan. It’s just some words of advice from a person who has seen them lose in the postseason far more than they’ve won. Like in 1974, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The world kept moving along after all those losses, and it will again this year, win or lose.
Yes, the Padres, who are rapidly moving up the list of the Dodgers’ biggest rivals, settling in at No. 2 (with a bullet) behind the Giants. By the way, the Padres are doing that cute thing they do every year, preventing people who don’t have a San Diego ZIP Code from buying tickets to postseason games at Petco Park.
Let’s do a position by position comparison.
Catcher
Will Smith, .248/.327/.433, 20 homers, 75 RBIs, 116 OPS+, 3.5 WARKyle Higashioka, .220/.263/.476, 17 homers,, 45 RBIs, 101 OPS+. 1.4 WAR
Smith fell into a lengthy slump about midway through the season but seemed to be coming out of it the last couple of weeks. Higashioka, who went to Edison High in Huntington Beach, had a bad September, hitting .174, but played well enough earlier in the season to take the starting job from Luis Campusano.
Edge: Dodgers
First baseFreddie Freeman, .282/.378/.476, 22 homers, 89 RBIs, 143 OPS+, 4.7 WARDonovan Solano, .286/.343/.417, 8 homers, 35 RBIs, 112 OPS+, 0.9 WAR
The season-ending injury to Ha-Seong Kim caused the Padres to move some pieces around, and Solano landed at first. The big question is how Freeman’s ankle is doing. That could be the key to the series. Max Muncy was taking ground balls at first base during Thursday’s workout.
Edge: Dodgers
Second baseGavin Lux, .251/.320/.383, 10 homers, 50 RBIs, 101 OPS+, 2.1 WARJake Cronenworth, .241/.324/.390, 17 homers,, 83 RBIs, 99 OPS+, 2.0 WAR
Lux got off to a horrific start this year before hitting .304 with power after the All-Star break. Cronenworth did the opposite, tailing off to a .215 average after the break.
Edge: Dodgers
Third baseMax Muncy, .232/.358/.494, 15 homers, 48 RBIs, 141 OPS+, 3.0 WARManny Machado, .275/.325/.472, 29 homers, 105 RBIs, 120 OPS+, 3.2 WAR
This is an example of why you can’t judge by just batting average. Muncy was out hit by 43 points but had a higher OB% and SLG%. However, Machado is better defensively, which gives the Padres the advantage here, but it’s not as gigantic as you might think. If Freeman can’t play, then Muncy probably moves to first and Kiké Hernández plays third, giving the Padres a bigger edge.
Edge: Padres
ShortstopMiguel Rojas, .283/.337/.410, 6 homers, 36 RBIs, 113 OPS+, 3.4 WARXander Bogaerts, .264/.307/.381, 11 homers, 44 RBIs, 92 OPS+, 1.2 WAR
Rojas has been an unsung hero for the Dodgers this season and has excelled at the plate and with the glove. Bogaerts moved from second to short and is not nearly the defender Rojas is. If Rojas can’t play, Tommy Edman will start for the Dodgers, and he’s better too.
Edge: Dodgers
Left fieldTeoscar Hernández, .272/.339/.501, 33 homers, 99 RBIs, 137 OPS+, 4.3 WARJurickson Profar, .280/.380/.459, 24 homers, 85 RBIs, 134 OPS+, 3.7 WAR
Hernández has more power, but Profar makes more contact and gets on base more often. They both can be emotional spark plugs for the team and rise to the big moments.
Edge: Even
Center fieldTommy Edman, .237/.294/.417, 6 homers, 20 RBIs, 101 OPS+, 0.9 WARJackson Merrill, .292/.326/.500, 24 homers, 90 RBIs, 127 OPS+. 4.4 WAR
After not playing all year and being acquired at the trade deadline, Edman filled the old Chris Taylor role very well. But Merrill would be rookie of the year if not for a guy named Paul Skenes and could be the guy who kills the Dodgers.
Edge: Padres
Right fieldMookie Betts, .289/.372/.491, 19 homers, 75 RBIs, 145 OPS+, 4.8 WARFernando Tatis Jr., .276/.340/.492, 21 homers, 49 RBIs, 130 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
Two great players. It seems strange to give anyone an edge here because neither team is disadvantaged in right. Still, Betts is a little bit better, as long as he doesn’t disappear like last postseason.
Advantage: Dodgers
Designated hitterShohei Ohtani, .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 130 RBIs, 190 OPS+, 9.2 WARLuis Arraez, .314/.346/.392, 4 homers, 46 RBIs, 106 OPS+, 1.1 WAR
They finished first and second in batting average, but they couldn’t be more different. Arraez is an old-school hitter who will choke up on the bat and find holes in the offense, winning three straight batting titles. Ohtani is, well, do I really need to go into detail? This will be his first postseason. He has risen to the key moments during the regular season. Will he do it again? I say yes. The whole postseason for the Dodgers could ride on it.
Edge: Dodgers
Starting pitching
DodgersJack Flaherty, 6-2, 3.58 ERAYoshinobu Yamamoto, 7-2, 3.00 ERAWalker Buehler, 1-6, 5.38 ERALandon Knack, 3-5, 3.65 ERA
PadresMichael King, 13-9, 2.95 ERADylan Cease, 14-11, 3.47 ERAJoe Musgrove, 6-5, 3.88 ERAYu Darvish, 7-3, 3.31 ERA
A monkey wrench was thrown into the Padres’ plans when Joe Musgrove left his wild-card game start with a tight elbow. Some Dodger fans were celebrating that, but you should never celebrate an injury. You always want to be a team at their best, and Musgrove is a very good pitcher. The rotation has been shaky for the Dodgers all season, and been a strong point for the Padres. Even with Musgrove out …
Edge: Padres
Bullpen
DodgersEvan Phillips, 5-1, 3.62 ERA, 18 savesAlex Vesia, 5-4, 1.76 ERA, 5 savesDaniel Hudson, 6-2, 3.00 ERA, 10 savesBlake Treinen, 7-3, 1.93 ERA, 1 saveMichael Kopech, 4-0, 1.13 ERA, 6 saves
PadresRobert Suarez, 9-3, 2.77 ERA, 36 savesAdrián Morejón, 3-2, 2.83 ERA, 2 savesTanner Scott, 3-1, 2.73 ERA, 4 savesJason Adam, 3-0, 1.01 ERA, 0 savesBryan Hoeing, 1-1, 1.52 ERA, 0 saves
The relievers listed are the ones who will probably see the bulk of the stressful innings. The Padres acquired Scott, Adam and Hoeing at the deadline. They have been more consistent than the Dodgers’ main relievers. Suarez had a tough September, but pitched two scoreless innings during the wild-card round.
Edge: Padres
BenchDodgersAustin BarnesKiké HernándezChris TaylorAndy PagesKevin Kiermaier
PadresElías DíazNick AhmedTyler WadeBrandon LockridgeDavid Peralta
The Dodgers will have to decide whether to take 13 pitchers to the NLDS and drop Kiermaier, or take 12 pitchers and keep him. Two former Dodgers on the Padres bench in Ahmed and Peralta.
Edge: Dodgers
The Dodgers have the edge in seven categories, the Padres four, with one even. If only it were that simple. This is going to be a hard-fought series, and the Padres have the edge in a very important category: pitching. The Dodgers will need strong efforts from Flaherty and Yamamoto and will probably need their offense to score about five runs a game. Can they do it? Yes. Will it be easy? No. But the hard is what makes it great.
The Dodgers have played this season with more passion and intensity than in other seasons. Despite all the obstacles, they finished with 98 wins and the best record in baseball. They have guys on the team who don’t shrink from the big moments. For this round at least, I think that will be enough to carry them through.
The other thing it keep in mind: Winning teams usually have at least one unexpected player step up to help win a series. Think Brian Doyle (Brian Doyle? How old is the guy writing this newsletter), Scott Brosius, Mickey Hatcher, David Freese. Who will that be on the Dodgers?
Whatever happens, we’ll be back Monday to discuss the first two games.
Prediction: Dodgers in five.
The Dodgers originally announced that Flaherty would start Game 1, but Thursday they switched to Yamamoto. Why? This will give Yamamoto five days off so he would be available to pitch Game 5 on his normal rest. Flaherty, pitching Game 2, would also be available for Game 5.
“It’s much more about if there’s a Game 5,” Andrew Friedman said. “Yoshi hasn’t pitched on regular [four days’ rest]. Jack is more accustomed to it. Depending on our bullpen usage throughout [the series], it allows us that flexibility in Game 5 if there is one.”
Fernando Valenzuela was not in the broadcast booth for the Dodgers’ last home stand, nor will he return for the postseason. He has stepped away to focus on his health, the Dodgers announced this week. He has reportedly been hospitalized.
“He and his family truly appreciate the love and support of fans as he aims to return for the 2025 season, and they have asked for privacy during this time,” the team announced.
Best wishes to Fernando and his family.
Saturday: San Diego (Dylan Cease, 14-11, 3.47 ERA) at Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 7-2, 3.00 ERA) 5:38 p.m, FS1Sunday: San Diego (Yu Darvish, 7-3, 3.31 ERA) at Dodgers (Jack Flaherty, 13-7, 3.17 ERA), 5:08 p.m., FS1Tuesday: Dodgers (TBD) at San Ddiego (TBD), TBD, Fox or FS1*Wed.: Dodgers (TBD) at San Diego (TBD), TBD, Fox or FS1*Friday: San Diego (TBD) at Dodgers (TBD), TBD, Fox or FS1
*-if necessary
Joe Davis and John Smoltz will be the announcers for this NLDS
Who will win the NLDS? Click here to vote in our poll.
After 13,835 votes:
Atlanta, 79.7%San Diego, 20.3%
After 10,032 votes:
Yes, 62.9%No, 37.1%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start for Dodgers in Game 1 of NLDS vs. Padres
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Dodgers are going to lean heavily on their bullpen in the playoffs. Who do they trust?
Dodgers provide update on Fernando Valenzuela amid absence from broadcasts
‘One of the boys’: Shohei Ohtani impresses Dodgers teammates with his personality too
Tom Hanks reminds us that in baseball, the hard is what makes it great. Watch and listen here.

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